Doug Ford extended the emergency orders until June 9th and I ask, for what purpose?

Doug Ford extended the emergency orders until June 9^th and I ask, for what purpose? 

 

We were told these measures were to flatten the curve so our healthcare system was not overwhelmed.  If you accept that justification then please review the current hospitalization statistics.  We have 33,000 ward beds in Ontario; right now 850 people are hospitalized with Covid19.  We have 2000+ ICU spaces, right now 134 spaces are being used for those with Covid19.  My neighbors are both nurses, they have told me that the Hospitals have been ghost towns, though now finally some regular things are starting to pick up again. 

 

If the justification was flatten the curve - to what level?  Below the capacity of our hospitals.  It’s been done.  What is the purpose at this point? 

 

They tell us to prepare for a second wave.  There was never a first wave.  The projected ‘bad-case’ scenarios were so far off it amazing.  Examples:  Hamilton maximum 19 of 450 extra Covid beds were ever used.   Burlington Joseph Brant Hospital: rushed to erect a 93 bed Covid19 unit for the uprush in patients, none were used yet to my knowledge.

 

I have posted statistics twice in the past on here relating to age category cases and deaths.  97% of deaths are amongst those over age 60.  The last time I checked zero deaths had occurred under age 20, your chances of fatality if you are age 20-39 is 0.3% (worst case), if you are age 40-59 is 1% (worst case). 

 

I say worst case because these numbers are based on cases revealed by testing.  Not everyone with Covid19 is tested, only those with the worst symptoms who are bad enough to go to the hospital.  There are many more cases present in the community than have been revealed by testing. 

 

For example, Spain completed anti-body testing amongst 60,000 of their residents.  This antibody study revealed that only 9.2% of cases had been revealed by testing.  Basically this means that you can adjust the death statistics downwards by a factor of 10, so 0.3% becomes 0.03%.  1% = 0.1%.  This coincides with studies in other jurisdictions which indicated that the number of actual cases could be up to 20x more than those revealed by testing.  In fact CDC has now reported that the estimated Case Fatality Rate amongst all age categories is 0.26% or 1 in 385.  This is very low.  The yearly flu rate is about 0.15%.

 

Why would we shut down the entire economy, lock people at home and put them out of work for something that is of negligible risk to the vast majority of the population?  65 is the age of retirement in Ontario.  I would hazard a guess that well over 90% of people over age 65 do not have to go to work to earn an income day by day.  It is much easier for them to stay put.  Those aged 20-60 though is another story; most of us do need the opportunity to earn an income.  All ages are important and all people are important, but it is a fact that some can stay at home and protect themselves easier than others.  I will gladly serve our elders and bring them groceries etc. if it means that my friends can all go back to work.  

 

Where has the danger really been?  Long-term-care (LTC) facilities.  What a travesty.  83% of Canadian deaths have been amongst residents of LTC facilities, in Ontario that is some 1789 deaths of 2155 total.  Let that sink in.  Only 366 deaths amongst 14,730,000 people of Ontario not in LTC.  1789 deaths among the +/- 70,000 residents of long-term care facilities.  

 

Some stats on LTC residents: 90% have some form of cognitive impairment, 86% need extensive help with activities such as eating and going to the washroom, 80% have neurological diseases, 76% have heart/circulation disease, 40% need monitoring for acute medical conditions, 50% of residents are over age 85.  The average time spent by a resident in a long-term care facility before death is 2 years – this is the last stop before heaven.  I am not saying their deaths are any less of a tragedy, but these people are already ‘locked down’ – and it doesn’t help them.  People have brought the virus to them anyways.  Imagine being locked down in your home, but people kept coming and going all day long and you could do nothing about it.

 

It was known that these were the people at risk, so ignorance is no excuse.  We had ample data from Italy showing that the deaths were amongst those age 80+ and mostly in LTC.  Ontario’s own statistics on case-fatality-ratios (CFR) from the slides presented April 2, 2020 showed that only 7 of 67 deaths at that time had been among those less than age 60, while 36 were above 80, with a CFR of 16%.  So why were the elderly not protected?  They should have been testing everyone who went in and out from day one. 

 

Quarantine the sick.  But once the virus is out – we are all assumed sick, so there is no point in a lockdown.  Places where the vulnerable are located such as LTC facilities can be protected through restricted access and testing.

 

Once the virus is in the population it is impossible to stop it spreading.  It is debatable whether the lockdowns can even slow the spread.  Perhaps to a small degree at best.  It has been documented though that within the United States there is no correlation between the degree of lockdown measures and the spread of the virus.  If anything, the states with stronger isolation measures were hit harder.  In any case, the spread in Ontario has been slowed sufficiently that hospitals are not at risk of turning anyone away.   It is well past time for the lockdown to be ended.